rational forecasts

USAGE SUMMARY

The phrase "rational forecasts" is correct and usable in written English.
It can be used when discussing predictions or estimates that are based on logical reasoning or sound judgment. Example: "The economist presented rational forecasts for the upcoming fiscal year, taking into account various market trends."

✓ Grammatically correct

Science

News & Media

Academia

Human-verified similar examples from authoritative sources

Similar Expressions

60 human-written examples

If actual inflation goes up, in other words, the rational forecast is simply that it will come down again.

The Guardian - Opinion

But Mr. Shiller showed that actual stock prices fluctuated much more than any possible rational forecast of prospective profits; he thought that this "excess volatility" result would settle the point.

The New York Times

The transition from prophecy to rational forecasting has been clearly explained, moving from Koselleck [6], by Esposito [23, 24].

European Journal of Futures Research

Every field map, like a financial model or rational forecast, changes the field (i.e., the reality as such) that is mapped for the simple reason that it is communicated, thus making the same map somehow unreliable [52].

European Journal of Futures Research

Psychology is an essential component of rational forecasting.

HuffPost

If there is only one rational forecast, the main reason for having markets disappears!

HuffPost

Rational hazard forecasts should fully recognize the large, indeed dominant role of uncertainties in volcanic processes, and be therefore expressed through probabilities.

Journal of Applied Volcanology

Here, I do not review the methods and their technical aspects; rather, I focus on the value of rational hazard forecasts, that account for both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties that dominate in the natural processes involved in volcanic systems; and I outline a recommended best practice approach to dealing with volcanic hazards and risks, with reference to short-term forecasts.

Journal of Applied Volcanology

I argue that rational volcanic hazard forecasts assure a clear, unambiguous distinction between volcano scientists and decision-makers, with the formers providing forecasts in the probabilistic form that is best suited for decision-making under uncertainty – the natural state characterizing any situation of volcanic risk.

Journal of Applied Volcanology

In contrast, rational volcanic hazard forecasts fully and explicitly account for the uncertain nature of both volcanic processes and the evolution of a volcanic system, thus maximizing the exploitation of diverse knowledge and expertise for societal benefits.

Journal of Applied Volcanology

Although protecting volcanologists against legal issues related to their conduct during a crisis is not among the arguments in this paper, it should be noted that as a consequence of rational volcanic hazard forecasts, volcanologists are released from the inappropriate duty of making decisions impacting society.

Journal of Applied Volcanology

Expert writing Tips

Best practice

Use probabilistic terms to describe any forecast that depends on future events. This builds trust and lowers expectations when presenting rational forecasts.

Common error

Avoid presenting "rational forecasts" as absolute certainties. Acknowledge potential uncertainties and limitations in the underlying data and models.

Linguistic Context

The phrase "rational forecasts" functions as a noun phrase where the adjective "rational" modifies the noun "forecasts". According to Ludwig AI, this phrase is grammatically correct and signifies predictions based on logic and reason.

Expression frequency: Missing

Frequent in

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Less common in

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Ludwig's WRAP-UP

The phrase "rational forecasts" describes predictions or estimates derived through logical reasoning and objective analysis. According to Ludwig AI, the phrase is grammatically sound. Although the phrase does not occur frequently, its usage spans across various professional fields, including science, news, and academia, indicating its utility in contexts requiring credible and justifiable outlooks. When using this phrase, it's crucial to acknowledge potential uncertainties and present assumptions clearly to maintain transparency and credibility.

More alternative expressions

Phrases that express similar concepts, ordered by semantic similarity:

logical predictions

Emphasizes the soundness and reasoning behind the prediction.

reasoned projections

Highlights the thought process and methodology used to develop the projection.

sensible estimates

Focuses on the practicality and common sense applied in making the estimate.

justifiable predictions

Stresses the ability to defend the prediction with evidence or logic.

well-founded projections

Indicates that the projections are based on a solid base of information and analysis.

evidence-based forecasts

Highlights reliance on concrete data and evidence in creating the forecast.

objective estimates

Focuses on impartiality and lack of bias in the estimation process.

sound predictions

Emphasizes the reliability and validity of the predictions.

defensible projections

Highlights the ability to withstand scrutiny and challenges.

analytical forecasts

Stresses the use of detailed analysis in deriving the forecasts.

FAQs

How can I use "rational forecasts" in a sentence?

You might say, "The economist presented "rational forecasts" for the upcoming quarter, based on current economic indicators." Alternatively, "The company relies on "rational forecasts" to guide its investment decisions."

What are some alternatives to saying "rational forecasts"?

Consider using terms like "logical predictions", "reasoned projections", or "sensible estimates" depending on the specific context and nuance you wish to convey.

What makes a forecast "rational"?

A "rational" forecast is based on logical reasoning, sound judgment, and available evidence, rather than speculation or wishful thinking. It takes into account potential uncertainties and acknowledges limitations.

How do "rational forecasts" differ from simple guesses?

Rational forecasts are derived using systematic methodologies and data analysis, whereas guesses are based on intuition or incomplete information. Rationality implies a deliberate, reasoned approach.