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Experimental observations may be used via likelihood functions to estimate the most plausible values of deposition probabilities.
As reviewed by Tomasko et al. (1999), the most plausible values for r eff and v eff from early observations are in a range of 1.2 1.8 μm and 0.2 1.0, respectively.
In the model a base case was developed in which all variables were set to the most plausible values, based primarily on the trial and following discussion by the research project group that weighted additional sources.
After discussion in the research project group a period of 16 days for a grade 1 and of 40 days for a grade 2 were set as the most plausible values for the duration.
Although the results just described are generally consistent across the range of most plausible values (Kukic et al., 2013), namely 2 to 6, we sought to confirm our conclusions with a second methodology.
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For the random input variable, the established model analyzes its importance from two aspects: (1) its effect on the most plausible value of the failure probability, (2) its effect on the imprecision of the failure probability.
Table 1 lists "a priori" (i.e., the most plausible value before observation, X a ), minimum values (X min), maximum values (X max), and variation ranges (ΔX = X max − X min) of the seven parameters utilized in the present model.
According to Bostrom, artificial intelligence will arrive towards the end of the century, rapidly outstrip human intelligence, and "shape the world according to its preferences", which are likely to "involve the complete destruction of human life and most plausible human values.
For the most plausible parameter values, we estimated that in the absence of context-dependent codon choice, the probability to acquire a frame-shift mutation in a mononucleotide repeat in a protein-coding gene would be 3% per replication (see Additional File 2).
Sensitivity analysis of the impact of multiple imputation was performed by repeating regression analyses without imputation, with missing cases excluded (a 'completer analysis'), and by assuming that missing values of stage and co-morbidity took the most extreme plausible values.
24 1 The second method proposed by Joseph et al 25 provides a more precise adjusted estimate by giving preference only to the most plausible range of values for the parameters of interest (prevalence, and sensitivity and specificity of the algorithm).
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
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