That worst-case forecast highlights another potential hidden risk.
According to the Treasury's worst-case forecast, sterling could drop by 15% after a Brexit vote.
Kaupthing has cut its "worst-case" forecast for Land of Leather's pre-tax profits by 62%, to £7m.
Different forecasting formats are used (i.e., point forecast, best-case forecast, worst-case forecast, and surprise probability), and both individual predictions and consensus forecasts are requested.
A 2007 earthquake hazard study by C. DeMets and M. Wiggins-Grandison noted that the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault zone could be at the end of its seismic cycle and concluded that a worst-case forecast would involve a 7.2 Mw earthquake, similar in size to the 1692 Jamaica earthquake.
Worst-case forecasts by the World Bank estimated that Ebola could cost the region as much as $32 billion if it were allowed to spiral out of control.
In fact, the party plunged below even the worst-case forecasts: it now runs not a single county in England, and won less than 16% of the vote in the European poll.The far-right British National Party (BNP) fed on the collapse of Labour support among the white working class (see article).
However, even under worst-case forecasting scenarios, using a rolling horizon optimization scheme provides a more than 50% reduction in error when compared to the original system.
The case studies demonstrated that expected value decision makers who can key on a single factor when making their decisions are much more likely to extract value from probabilistic forecasts than worst case avoiding decision makers.
Perhaps the most frightening news is that the worst-case scenarios forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) may not have been dire enough.
Financial analysts forecast that in the worst case BP could spend as much as $12 billion fixing the mess, though it would later recoup some of that from its partners.
