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We backtested the workforce projection model by comparing the ex-post projected number of general practitioners with the observed number of general practitioners between 1998 and 2011.
These detailed predictions are aggregated to yield a workforce projection for the entire company.
For the medical specialties, the workforce projection results should be interpreted relative to the EWP assessment.
The workforce projection model underestimated the number of active Dutch general practitioners in most years.
First, in the present study, we backtested the current GP workforce projection methods a posteriori.
Varying input parameters in the workforce projection model generated the alternative scenarios.
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To answer this question, we will conduct a posteriori projections to backtest the current workforce projections and compare the projected ex-post number of GPs with the observed number of GPs.
Table 2 provides a summary of selected medical specialty workforce projections, showing the net difference between projected workforce supply and expressed demand in 2025 under each alternative scenario.
The methodology, data and underpinning assumptions that created the HW 2025 workforce projections were consulted on extensively through the course of the project.
All authors are employed by Health Workforce Australia, the organisation which conducted the workforce projections and is funding and managing the Nursing Productivity and Retention Project and the National Medical Training Network, and is the organisation that is financing the manuscript.
In developing the HW 2025 project, HWA followed a number of key principles to ensure the workforce projections generated were robust and realistic [ 8], and able to be used as a framework for nationwide discussions on future workforce policy and reform directions.
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