For the hydrothermal simulations presented in the "Hydrothermal simulations" section, the permeabilities of the permeable reservoir rock units have been varied within plausible ranges to find the best fit to the available borehole temperature observations.
In one-way sensitivity analyses, none of the parameters had a substantial influence on the predicted number of TB notifications when varied within plausible ranges (data not shown).
Within plausible ranges for these parameters, proportions identified as TB cases is the most influential.
Values for these unknown parameters were jointly selected from within plausible ranges, with simulations run in batches of 1,000.
Some of these factors are not known precisely, so we estimated them within plausible ranges of values.
Sensitivity analyses varying the aforementioned approximations within plausible ranges led only to very minor variation of the results and are therefore not shown in detail.
One-way sensitivity analyses showed the influence of variations, within plausible ranges, of different parameters on the results of the model (Table 3 and Figure 2).
We therefore selected a strategy to assess in detail whether the minimum and maximum numbers of predicted events from the probabilistic sensitivity analysis were within plausible ranges.
A sensitivity analysis on the distribution of the incubation and infectious period shows that the test and estimates for SAR1 and R 0 are insensitive to uncertainty about these distributions within plausible ranges.
Specifically, individual parameters such as discount rate, cost of complications and treatment duration, were varied between low and high values within plausible ranges, whereas time horizon parameter was tested in a series of lower than base case values.
Testing individual parameters in isolation showed that only one of them increased the ICER above the GDP/capita threshold when varied from their baseline estimates within plausible ranges, as shown in Figure 4.
