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Several liberal economists, the forecasters at Goldman Sachs and Mark Zandi (an economist whose forecasts the administration has used) all argue for a bill of at least $1 trillion.
How did Keynes, whose forecasts proved otherwise prescient, get this so wrong?
There was Al Sleet, the hippy-dippy weatherman, for example, whose forecasts had an existential edge: "Dark.
Macroeconomic Advisers, whose forecasts are often used by the Federal Reserve, said it could raise economic growth by 1.25 percentage points and create 1.3 million jobs in 2012.
"I can't tell you what's going to happen at 4 23 p.m. on a Sunday," said Professor Coimbra, whose forecasts extend to seven days but with decreasing accuracy.
Sean Collins, who created Surfline.com, whose forecasts and real-time views of beaches reach 1.5 million surfers a week, died on Monday in Newport Beach, Calif.
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Mr. Lawler, whose forecast for July was much more accurate than his colleagues' estimates, said housing would truly be healthy only when there was enough employment growth to spur the creation of new households.
In other words, the estimated forecast models, whose forecast errors are lower than 1/2, are ignored.
This has become a kind of annual academic "competition" run between scientists who study the Arctic to see whose forecast most closely matches the eventual outcome.
The wind farm marked as WFa in Fig. 2 is chosen as the target wind farm, whose forecasting errors are to be amended.
Reservoir simulation and field application show that the new model conforms to the ultra-high water cut stage very well whose forecasting error gets smaller and smaller with time.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com