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The unease Democrats are feeling now reflects the unpredictability of special elections like these in which turnout is usually low.
In places like Arkansas, the old playbook might still work, especially in a midterm election in which turnout is low.
We have seen a pattern tonight in which turnout is reasonably steady in areas that Mr. Romney loses, but has trended downward in counties that he won.
Unison, the main union for local government and NHS staff, called 700,000 council employees and 400,000 health workers on strike last year – often on the back of ballots in which turnout was below 25 per cent.
In a country of 190m registered voters and an election in which turnout could well exceed 80%, a 5% deficit represents a lot of votes: too many to simply fiddle away.
In mid-September, David Wasserman, an analyst at the Cook Political Report, laid out a scenario in which turnout among white non-college voters surged and turnout among some parts of the Democratic coalition, particularly African-Americans, fell.
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Last October he "won" a presidential election in which turnouts were inflated and other serious runners excluded.
Mr. Trende's analysis basically imagines a world in which white turnout rebounds to 2008 levels but nonwhite turnout doesn't, and it's hard to see why that makes sense.
The results of Sunday's vote, in which the turnout was more than 70 per cent, confirmed what the opposition has said for months: the population has lost patience.
Observers from the UN, the Commonwealth of Nations, and the EU monitored the balloting, in which voter turnout was registered at about 86%.
In a country and state in which election turnout has dropped to an embarrassing low, Election Day in Broward is a political sight to see.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com