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The current flat yield curve, which I forecast in my Apr.
And most of those exports go directly or indirectly to the U.S. American consumers have ended their 20-year borrowing-and-spending binge and are embarking on a saving spree, which I forecast in past columns.
The macro news, including data on consumer confidence, home sales, construction and employment, actually suggests a significant downside risk even to the anemic levels of growth which I forecast for H1 (the first half of the year).
See my Manhattan Institute paper from six years ago in which I forecast the U.S. could and would become an exporting nation, followed by another policy paper calling for the LOOP to be reconfigured for exports.
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It explained why African fashion was the next big trend in fashion (which I accurately forecasted by the way), and why he should back me to launch a brand.
Don't bank on itMay 25th 2010I have created financial models which predict the future better than I forecast my own life.
I forecast for different people.
I don't want to overstate the confidence with which I'm stating my forecast.
I think that is the 2011 forecast, which I think would only have HadCRUT data on it.
At a recent $42 per share, Logitech sells for about 20-times next year's consensus forecast, which I think is quite reasonable for a tech company of this quality.
The same methodology, which I call behavioral-based forecasting because it derives from forecasters' behavior, leads me to think Europe (except Great Britain and Japann will do better this year than the S&P 500.
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