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What if the premise is false?" In Kabul, Holbrooke and Karzai faced off over lunch at a long banquet table in the Presidential palace, each man flanked by his advisers.
As Major General Burt Field, Holbrooke's military adviser, told me, "What if the premise is false?" The war has gone on for eight years, and the effort McChrystal wrote about would take years more, and the political will both here and over there to have American troops at the heart of the war is ebbing very fast.
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If-then rules do not present much difficulty in classical sets: if the premise is true then the conclusion is true; if the premise is false then the conclusion is false (to be understood as the consequent not occurring or its action not executed).
The premise is false.
Just one problem: the premise is false.
It's a valid argument with a false conclusion, because one of the premises is false.
There might be danger in heavily relying on analogy as a prediction method because, if the basic premise is false, the entire scheme will fall apart.
If "causally sufficient condition" is taken in the strong sense, however, there are reasons to believe that the argument's first premise is false.
What is wrong with the original argument is not that its premise is false.
Yet if "casually sufficient condition" is taken in the strong sense, there are reasons to believe that its first premise is false.
Yet this premise is false.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.
Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com