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The Canadian provinces of Quebec (PQ) and Ontario (ON) first identified cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) with travel histories or exposure to travelers returning from Mexico within 2 weeks of outbreak detection (weeks 03 04 relative to the global outbreak initiated April 1 2009).
We suggest levels of 24 U/ml for IgA level and 27 U/ml (= 27 International Units (IU /ml) for IgG as sensitive, specific, and practical for laboratory confirmation of clinical pertussis in adults in the first 3 weeks of outbreak management.
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The estimated 12%% increase in all-cause hospitalizations and 25%% increase in deaths occurred primarily during the first 2 weeks of outbreaks, with estimates of 1 excess hospitalization for every 4 outbreaks and 1 excess death for every 9 outbreaks.
‡χ test p = 0.0005 The outbreak orphanage was visited within 1 week of outbreak detection.
Outbreak information and model relevant parameters like the infection rate, the basic reproductive number (R0), and the week of outbreak were estimated.
Therefore, onset month (week) of outbreak was defined as the first of two consecutive months (weeks) with at least 5(2) positive RSV findings.
We estimated the overall under-reporting factor to be 1.76 (95% CI 1.28-2.41) for the first three weeks of the outbreak before the outbreak vehicle was publicly communicated.
Based on a count data time series analysis, the weekly incidence of reported norovirus illness increased overall by a factor of 1.76 (i.e., 76%) for the first three weeks of the outbreak before the outbreak vehicle was publicly communicated, with the highest excess in males aged 20 29 years (factor 2.88).
The simulated outbreaks lasted an average of 13.1 weeks (IQR 11-14 weeks), 10% of outbreaks exceeding 16 weeks.
Given the size of the outbreaks shown in Figure 1, we expect the EWMA chart to detect the typical seasonal influenza outbreak within one or two weeks of the outbreak's start.
Preliminary CDC real-time modeling estimates in December 2010, using data from the first 7 weeks of the outbreak, predicted only a marginal impact for outbreak control with the immediately available vaccine supply.
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