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Since 2003, there have been 1 or more heat waves per year in Southern Ontario, each threaten farm animal production and welfare in the province.
For the 19-year period 1987–2005 in Chicago, there were a total of 14 heat waves (0.7 heat waves per year), and each heat wave lasted 9.2 days, on average.
Using the daily maximum temperature output from each of the climate models, we calculated the number of heat waves per year and the length of each heat wave (in days) under a changing climate.
Across all three SRES, the climate models projected an annual rate of heat waves in the future (2081 2100) ranging from 0.6 to 5.4 heat waves per year (Table 2).
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Most countries have about 1,000 respondents (older than 15) for each survey wave (mostly one wave per year).
We estimated that there would be an average of 1.88 (95% CI: 0, 11) heat wave episodes per year per county in 2057 2059.
Averaging each of these numbers over the length of each study period (current and future) and multiplying them together provided the expected number of heat wave days per year for each set of climate change scenarios and climate models, from which we can compute the statistics of change.
How about $150,000 per patient per year?
Even in the well-equipped and rich United States, heat waves kill hundreds of people per year, with the elderly particularly vulnerable.
Our findings also indicate that heat wave definitions have a strong influence on heat wave mortality projections, with the fewest days per year being classified as heat wave days when the HDW_HI definition was used, and the largest numbers of heat wave days when heat waves were defined using HDW_Tavg or HDW_Tmin.
Applying the present-day heat wave risk for Chicago to the estimates of heat waves under future conditions, we estimated an annual excess mortality attributable to heat waves ranging between 166 to 2,217 deaths per year.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com