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We plan future work to model how the amount of warming, timing of warming and required GDDs may lead communities at different elevations to respond differentially to projected warming (see [59], [60]).
Overall, the different warming timing (night-time only versus day night) did not cause any significant difference in yield and biomass increase.
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This study utilizes past (1959 1960) and present (2006 2008) surveys of grasshopper communities and daily temperature records to quantify the relationship between amount and timing of warming across years and elevations, and grasshopper timing to adulthood.
In the following, we address the degree to which community-level phenological responses vary relative to the degree to which sites have warmed and the timing of warming.
Our analyses provide clear evidence that variation in amount and timing of warming over the growing season explains the vast majority of phenological variation in this system.
[45], [46], [47]; but, as in other systems [6], it may also be attributed to the detailed seasonal timing of warming.
We also examined whether species that reach adulthood early versus late in the season differ in their degree of phenological advancement and whether this difference might be explained by the specific timing of warming.
The shift in the timing of warming during the 2006 to 2008 surveys at these two sites to later in the season (Figure 2) appears to have significantly affected changes in the community-wide levels of advancement.
More specifically, we use daily temperature records from the past and present at all sites to quantify how the amount and timing of warming associated with each site, and changes in growing degree day (GDD) accumulation rates (a measure of heat input relevant to organisms) affect the timing to adulthood of grasshoppers.
Our analyses provide clear evidence that variation in the amount and timing of warming over the grasshopper growing season explains the vast majority of phenological variation, a result that does not require us to invoke differences that are due to life-history traits.
In a second set of analyses we performed hydrological simulations with the SWAT model, in order to estimate changes in streamflow timing under projected warming temperatures.
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