This is the earliest degree-day summation concept, and for hundreds of years, this concept has been a fundamental basis for constructing bioclimatic models, such as the spring index model (Schwartz 1997; Schwartz and Marotz 1986 , 1988, thermal time model (Cannell and Smith 1983; Robertson 1968), and spring warming model (Hunter and Lechowicz 1992).
Therefore, it is completely plausible that the ice growth in the Antarctic is as expected within the global warming model.
But perhaps the most important insight to be gained from Figure 4 and Table 3 is that the part of the variance that originates from intermodel discrepancies is relatively small if one ignores the outliers among the models, that is, the very coldest and warmest model projections.
One sure thing is that melting sea ice cannot be implicated in the coastal flooding that many global warming models have projected.
September 15, 2013 Rupert Murdoch's Australian flagship newspaper carried a story this week suggesting the rise in sea ice relative to last year's minimum could confound climate scientists' global warming models.
The vulnerability indicator for each country was influenced by the results of predicted warming models, the importance of fisheries to economies and diets, and the country's limited capacity to adapt to potential impacts.
Such temporal shifting of nival regimes to early part of warmer season has also been predicted by global warming models.
Researchers are reporting that the ocean's biological deserts have been expanding, and they are growing much faster than global warming models predict.
Basically, the diversity of relationships between organisms and climates leads to diversity among statistical (empirical) models, such as the thermal time, degree-days, heat sums, growing degree-days, physiological time, and spring warming models.
Likewise, experimental mathematics results and global warming models cannot be covered by exactly the same requirements.
