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This poll also included weights based on respondents' party identification and their presidential vote preference from the earlier survey.
"Indeed," Tesler and Sears wrote, the effect of these attitudes on both general election vote preference in 2008 and presidential approval in April 2009 were considerably greater than they had been at any other time in the preceding decades.
Had just over fifty-five thousand people in the three states with the closest results — Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — changed their vote preference to Clinton, the Electoral College would have aligned with the popular vote, and many commentators would be exaggerating the meaning of Clinton's victory instead.
The new results represent a rapid transformation in the current Republican vote preference.
And is the vote preference question really the best place to look for the bump?
But more to Bolling's point, rallies couldn't possibly be more indicative of vote preference than polls.
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Ford et al. (2016) developed a three-stage method to forecast parliamentary election results from vote preferences in British opinion polls.
And history tells us that the convention period can often alter vote preferences in ways that persist through election day.
There is no evidence that vote preferences have shifted by any discernible amount....Why did Ms. Nunn gain in the polls?
Or does it mean that well-educated Republican turnout is down?...Another challenge is estimating vote preferences in the first place.
In other words, competence and vote preferences may be associated, but not because the former shapes the latter (Johns, 2010, 2011; Evans and Chzhen, 2013).
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