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Late in 2012, I said that a Conservative majority in 2015 was all but impossible, given the split on the right, the unity of the left, and the vote distribution of our electoral system.
Details of that shift, which follows previous, slight changes in vote distribution, are expected to be negotiated at a summit meeting of leaders of the Group of 20 nations in Seoul, South Korea, in November.
The reason for this is clearly stated in this paper – Labour‟s electoral advantage is less a function of malapportionment, which the boundary review will address directly, but more a mainly a function of vote distribution and next abstention, neither of which are the main concerns of independent boundary commissions.
Instead, we use a zero-truncated maximum likelihood estimate [14] to determine the parameters μ and σ for the vote distribution of Figure 8. Specifically, the fit is to the probability of observing k votes conditioned on observing at least one vote.
The vote distribution varies a little more this time, but still not a significant difference.
When you look at the vote distribution between both pictures, they are almost identical.
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Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that the vote distributions become more concentrated in municipalities less likely to gain local representation after the mergers.
The vote distributions in their districts would have to swing by 10% or more for any sizable number of them to lose their seats, and that's not very likely to happen.(Photo credit: AFP).
It seems to me that it would only be fair to replace winner-take-all with popular-vote distribution if every state participated.
Estonia is perhaps the best example, where the voting distribution switched to the universal pattern in 2002 when the electoral rules changed.
The report also claims that the last boundary review prior to the 2010 election effectively removed much of Labour's bias in terms of size, but another one will fail to affect its bias from voter turnout and voting distribution (described by Pattie as "efficiency").
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com