Less affluent voters were more likely to say that gas prices affected their vote choice, particularly in Georgia.
Fewer than 1 in 10 likely voters are still uncertain about their vote choice, according to the poll.
The comparable figures for voters who had already made a vote choice are 12 percent Obama, 68 percent Romney, and 9 percent unsure – an unusually non-partisan result.
Gallup reported yesterday that "while income is correlated with voter support, it is by no means a total determinant of vote choice".
Beginning with Gary C. Jacobson's foundational work in 1978, scholars over the years have found considerable spending effects on election outcomes and/or individual vote choice.
—Dalia Sussman Gas Prices In Georgia, Massachusetts, Ohio and Tennessee, voters overwhelmingly cited gas prices as a factor in their primary vote choice today.
Before the debate, I wrote about the impressive amount of stability in people's vote choice – roughly 96 percent of voters stick with their initial choice.
They found that "general election vote choice in 2008 was more heavily influenced by feelings about Muslims than it was in either 2004 voting or in McCain-Clinton trial heats".
But the poll took an especially large sample – more than 3,000 respondents – which allowed them to explore the vote choice among a richer set of partisan subgroups than pollsters typically consider.
Among likely voters who are currently undecided about their vote choice, 24 percent think abortion should always be legal, 45 percent think it should be legal under certain circumstances, and 18 percent think abortion should be illegal under all circumstances.
As you can see, party identification is more closely related to vote choice for people who can make up their mind a year out from an election, but even among undecided voters coming to a decision, party is a strong driver.
