For example, while our c-statistic (ROC) was 0.83 in the model development site, and ranged from 0.75 to 0.81 in each of the eight validation periods/sites, the c-statistic in the three validation sites for the model described by Prytherch et al 10 was 0.78, 0.76 and 0.75.
We tested the model's validity in two ways in each setting to reflect the way the model can be used in practice: using coefficients from across the whole validation cohort, as might be used in research or national audit; and using separate coefficients for each validation site, as might be used in local audit.
The buoy-driven wave model shows significant skill at most validation sites, but prediction errors for individual swell or sea events can be large.
However, prediction errors, when calculated for independent validation sites, were several times larger in ESM predictions compared to geospatial predictions.
Comparison with field measurements shows that Landsat 30-m snow-free shortwave albedos from all seasons generally achieve an absolute accuracy of ±0.02 0.05 for these validation sites during available clear days in 2003 2005, with a root mean square error less than 0.03 and a bias less than 0.02.
For both validation sites, logistic regression models on cluster membership could not be fit apparently due to an insufficient amount of data in these smaller cohorts.
The modified temperature index model (MTIM) accurately predicted salt-induced melt (R2 = 0.98 and 0.99, RMSE = 19.9 and 282.4 m3, CRM = −0.003 and 0.006 for calibration and validation sites respectively), and showed a demonstrable ability to calculate the Bare Pavement Regain Time (BPRT).
Figure 1 displays the ROC curves for the development population and each of the four validation sites and two validation periods.
Lastly, a framework is designed to apply the developed stochastic model to 39 gauged meteorological stations in Zhejiang Province, East China and to extend its application to one ungauged site for validation.
Estimated capacity factors are compared with the measured capacity factor of a wind turbine working at Soda site, for validation of results.
