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A third way is through the use of climate models (computer programs that replicate the Earth climate system).
A major effort since the last report has been the use of climate models to predict changes at the regional level.
Predicting the impacts of climate change rightly takes up much of the time of climate change researchers, but this use of climate models reveals the extent to which climate change ands extreme weather is a danger right here, right now.
A variety of methodologies for scenario construction have been experimented with, all of them to a greater or lesser extent depending on the use of climate models.
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The representation of climate and vegetation patterns has been improved through the use of climate model output.
Principal conclusions of this paper are that the integrated system provides reliable ensemble inflow volume forecasts for the majority of the deciles of forecast frequency, and that the use of climate model simulations is beneficial mainly during high flow periods.
Or should we rely on the conventional approach of using outputs of climate models as inputs to a hydrological model?
Abbs [36] and Lavender and Abbs [37] used a subset of climate models to examine the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones in the Australian region.
Using the latest generation of climate models, they found a consistent projection for the future of ENSO.
The relevant comparison is not with the 2.5C response of one model, but with the average of climate models used by the UN's climate science panel in its upcoming major report, which is 1.8C.
Fish bones were also used to test the accuracy of climate models, some of which predict that air and sea temperatures will rise by approximately 3°C during the next 70 100 years.
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