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Thus the evolutionary dynamics of large populations can be sensitive to the structure of an extended region of the fitness landscape — the population may not take directly uphill paths in favor of paths across valleys and plateaus that lead eventually to fitter genotypes.
We must then ask how likely evolution is to eschew the immediately uphill paths, and instead cross valleys or plateaus to reach better but less accessible genotypes.
We present a simple model to analyze the probability that evolution will eschew immediately uphill paths in favor of crossing fitness valleys or plateaus that lead to higher fitness but less accessible genotypes.
In the Discussion, we consider how this model can be extended to the situation where there are many different competing uphill paths and valleys, and to broader fitness valleys involving multiple intermediate genotypes.
This dependence is not monotonic: evolution at intermediate population sizes is most "greedy", while both larger and smaller populations are more likely to eschew uphill paths in favor of complex trajectories.
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