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Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow.
Then, we count the number of months that started with no unrest up to that time window (number of 'trials') and the number of times that a new unrest episode starts within the time window, the latter corresponding to the number of observed unrest episodes up to then (number of 'successes') (Marzocchi et al. 2008; Sandri et al. 2009).
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Industrial unrest picked up again (its high summer was in 1911).
Should social unrest flare up again and expand, this would represent new challenges to his administration and its credibility.
October's year-on-year inflation rate jumped to 4.4%, from 3.6% in September, but food prices, a potential source of political unrest, were up by 10%.
When political unrest flared up in Nepal after 1832, an anti-British clique seized power and sought assistance from China to form an anti-British common front with the Qing, then fighting the first Opium War.
"When the maize crop goes down, the circumstances for social unrest go up … This is exactly how the Arab spring in the Middle East started," said Louis Meintjes, president of the Transvaal Agriculture Union.
This week the centre has again been the scene of unrest, with up to $10m in property damage wreaked by riots that followed the death of an Iranian man being held at the centre, a man detained despite the fact the government had recognised he was a refugee requiring Australia's protection.
His call was met with cries of "Don't smash things, smash Uighurs!" Police often made only half-hearted attempts to stop these crowds.More unrest boiled up on July 8th, even as President Hu Jintao flew home before the G8 meeting in Italy to handle the crisis and thousands more armed riot police poured into Urumqi's city centre in trucks, troop-carriers and marching ranks.
New York was well prepared for any such unrest, picking up the tab for 4,000 additional cops.
The labor unrest leading up to and surrounding the events led to the tradition of May Day labor rallies.
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