Fake News, Echo Chambers, Filter Bubbles, Social Bots and Psychological Targeting: Not a day goes by, without somebody coming up with a new buzzword trying to explain the allegedly unpredictable turnouts of Brexit or Trump's victory from a digital standpoint.
The fluidity of the race and the unpredictable nature of voter turnout — there has not been a competitive mayor's race here in three decades — has given hope to the minority candidates that with community organizing in the weeks to come, they might succeed.
Turnout can be unpredictable and it's distressing when numbers are low".
Some considered the May poll an outlier, as most other polls showed Mr. Markey with a smaller lead, though special elections are notoriously difficult in polling since turnout is so unpredictable.
But when the pot of loyalties has been stirred very hard, when turnout remains profoundly unpredictable, when continual uncertainty is the order of the day, can we be sure that our polls are the ones we can trust?
The abysmal turnout led to unpredictable results, with 12 independent candidates getting in, despite campaigning without the strength of a party machine behind them, and the former deputy prime minister Lord Prescott – the most high-profile candidate of the entire campaign – losing on second preferences.
At the 2010 election, the first close and unpredictable national contest for 13 years, the turnout was still less than two-thirds.
However, Douglas Alexander, one of the most senior politicians leading the Better Together campaign, said the extraordinarily high turnout made the result very unpredictable.
Though two polls have shown him with large leads, his allies and opponents alike caution that the election is unpredictable, particularly since no one knows what turnout will look like in mid-August.
And even some neutral Wisconsin observers think that polling of this race may not be predictive, because turnout will likely be highly unpredictable in a mid-year gubernatorial recall election.
Jean-François Copé, the party leader, faces a strong challenge from François Fillon, the popular former prime minister, who this week said that the right had "no natural leader".Yet Mr Hollande cannot afford to be complacent, given worries about turnout and the potential for unpredictable three-way run-offs.
