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From the baseline unmitigated peak daily incidence rate of 120 (per 10,000) 4 weeks of school closure resulted in peak daily incidence rates of 45, 30, 18 and 14 with no antivirals, and combined with theT, T+H and T+H+E antiviral strategies respectively (see Figure 4).
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The final attack rates are 23.8%, 22.9% and 20.8% (compared to the unmitigated attack rate of 24.5%), and the peak daily incidence rates are 104, 95 and 84 per 10,000 (compared to the unmitigated value of 109) following administration of the T, T+H and T+H+E strategies respectively.
Community sequestering was a more effective strategy in unmitigated regional scenarios for mild and severe epidemics, keeping peak symptomatic cases equivalent to the mitigated regional scenarios, but it lost effectiveness with decreasing compliance.
Unmitigated base case epidemics showed a rapid onset, early peak (≈day 23 for mild or day 27 for severe) and resolution (most by day 100 for mild and day 80 for severe).
Although each strategy reduced the peak illness rate by >90% from the unmitigated base cases, in severe epidemics, child sequestering did not meet epidemic control targets for infection rate and peak clinical illness attack rate; community sequestering was required to meet these targets (Table, Appendix Tables 1, 2).
This Bill has been an unmitigated disaster".
In general we found that school closure peak timing was delayed with only few days compared with that of an unmitigated pandemic.
In the mild, unmitigated base case epidemic, an average of 8.4% (840 cases) of the population was ill at peak.
"This is an unmitigated disaster.
It was unmitigated hell".
An unmitigated disaster.
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CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com