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We attribute the poor performance, and underestimated uncertainty, of the stochastic simulations to estimation bias introduced by model errors.
A systematic error that resulted in an underestimated uncertainty was later corrected by processing "perturbed measurements".
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Consequently, they tend to underestimate uncertainty in production forecasts.
Such systems clearly push managers to underestimate uncertainty in order to make a compelling case for their strategy.
The more conservative option – in this case, underestimating uncertainty – will be preferable in most circumstances, especially if the degree of over- and underestimation is similar.
Therefore, the look-up table 95% CI presented in Willcock et al (2012), and used in this study, may underestimate uncertainty [42].
As expected, the average error rates underestimate uncertainty except at the extremes of consensus, with u ¯ 1 clearly inferior to the composite beta binomial estimate for positive predictions.
The 95% Confidence Interval for this method (0.9 to 3.2 Pg C) is larger than simpler look-up table methods (1.5 to 1.6 Pg C), suggesting simpler methods may underestimate uncertainty.
29 Single imputation strategies fill-in missing data with a single value, thereby underestimating uncertainty.
Where there is such overdispersion in counts a conditional logistic regression will therefore underestimate uncertainty in estimated coefficients.
Therefore, the look-up table 95% CI presented in Willcock et al (2012), and used in this study, may underestimate uncertainty [ 42].
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com