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Economically, CDSs increase the likelihood of a management forecast by 6.4percentt, a 19.1percentt increase over the unconditional forecast likelihood of 33.5percentt.
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It needs to be noted that the model projections analysed in the paper are based on simplifying assumptions and tentative scenarios, and hence should be viewed with caution and not be understood as unconditional forecasts.
For the unconditional relation (which allows forecasting returns from past order imbalance), our results are qualitatively in line with the literature, but the effects are weaker.
The BU and BU-PCA approaches reduce the unconditional biases and negative skill in the forecasts considerably, but they can also sometimes diminish the positive skill in the original forecasts.
Unconditional surrender!
"Unconditional love.
PINOCHET: Unconditional surrender!
"It was unconditional.
I want unconditional love.
Unconditional support, be damned.
So is unconditional opposition.
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CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com