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Fuzziness as defined by Zadeh is nonstatistical in nature it represents vagueness due to human intuition, not uncertainty in the probabilistic sense.
This uncertainty description enables the investigation of how the uncertainty in the probabilistic assignment affects the predicted performance of an engineering system with respect to safety, quality and design constraints.
While it is accepted that for use in economic evaluation it is the absolute difference and not the effect size that determines cost effectiveness, the standard deviation influences the degree of uncertainty in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis [ 24].
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Furthermore, because engineering projects are based on predictions of how processes might develop under uncertainty in the future, probabilistic approaches are more appropriate than deterministic methods for this purpose.
In this study, integrating three-level full factorial and inscribed central composite designs, as well as utilizing a simulator, were used to forecast the probabilistic production of Dena reservoir and also to study the effect of the existing uncertainty in the reservoir on the probabilistic production forecast.
To account for multivariate and stochastic uncertainty in the model, a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was performed with 10 000 simulations.
To incorporate this uncertainty in the evaluation, a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was performed (Excel 2003/Visual basic) to quantify its effect on the model outcomes [ 20].
Equations governing uncertainties in the Bayesian probabilistic sense are summarized.
Acceptability curves were used to express the uncertainty in the ICER from the probabilistic sensitivity analyses.
32 This assumption is very important but is uncertain because of the lack of data available to inform it; therefore, we incorporated uncertainty over this assumption in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis.
We assessed uncertainty in the model parameters through probabilistic sensitivity analysis.
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