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We compare these characteristics in two future periods (2010 2054 and 2055 2099) of the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5).
The simulated annual maximum discharges in two future periods were added to the historical records to obtain the flood frequency curve.
The results show increases in spring and winter flows for the two future periods at all hydrometric stations within the basin, resulting in an extended period of spring freshet.
Hourly precipitation for one historical (1991 2000) and two future periods (2031 2040 and 2071 2079) were generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Climate Model (RCM).
In certain areas, especially in northwestern Russia, thaw of near-surface permafrost is projected to progress rapidly between the two future periods (dark blue zone), whereas in many other locations the change is minimal owing to, for example, the altitudinal cooling effect of a topographical barrier.
Twelve hydrologic indicators that represent the magnitude and timing of the hydrologic regimes are evaluated for three 30-year time periods centered at the 1990s, 2050s and 2080s to identify significant alterations of hydrologic regimes between the reference and the two future periods using a t-test at 5% significance level.
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Differences in the GCM projections exist for all the three future periods and the differences increase with time.
The length of the wet spell is expected to increase, whereas the length of the dry spell is expected to decrease in all three future periods.
The precipitation projections for three future periods, i.e. 2020s, 2055s and 2090s, are presented using empirical Probability Density Functions (PDFs) for each physiographic region.
Annual precipitation is projected to increase by 3 4%% for all three future periods.
The projected change in maximum and minimum temperature for three future periods from three RCPs, compared to the baseline period of 1976 2005 is presented in Table 5.
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