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And that's presuming a general election-style turnout, when each party brings out its support more or less evenly.
It found a 2-4% increase in turnout when precinct workers "flushed" Republicans to the polls just before election day, and a 5% increase in turnout when volunteers, rather than hired callers, manned the telephones.The business world is also trying to improve its performance.
"There is always a big turnout when it is anything to do with U.F.O.'s, astrology and the fringes of astronomy," she added.
The Obama campaign says the union could play a decisive role in generating voter turnout when the state holds its caucus next January.
The other big factor is turnout: when turnout is low, only those strongly invested in a particular outcome will vote, and this can skew the result to something quite at odds with majority opinion – essentially a selective sampling problem.
As it turned out, Ukip proved no better at spiking northern voters' interest than a Labour party, which could surely hope to bank on higher turnout when the country's future was at stake.
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A very warm and friendly person as well as a clear, direct speaker, she attracted large turnouts when she gave summer school guest lectures.
That would be the highest turnout since 2000, when Mr. Milosevic was ousted after more than a decade in power.
Of course, the incredible cumbersomeness of caucusing does not encourage turnout, particularly when there's a language barrier.
There is not much overlap between these two groups of voters, and proponents of a same-day vote say it would insure a larger and more representative turnout, especially when library trustee elections are contested.
Worries about turnout harden when one looks at younger voters.
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