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So if someone had a high support score and a low turnout score, meaning that person was very likely to support Obama but not so likely to vote, the campaign tried to make sure that person got registered and then cast a ballot, preferably during the period of early voting.
"Every individual voter is given a turnout score, the likelihood that that voter is going to turn out, and a candidate performance score, which candidate that voter is more likely to vote for relative to the other candidate," Strasma said.
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Introducing individual-level modeled turnout scores into the weighting yielded some modest differences….
We think that using voter lists with turnout scores could be a good way of getting a handle on whether the universe we're talking to in our surveys reflects the universe that is likely to turn out to vote".
Trump fares slightly better in a high turnout scenario - Pollsters Patrick Ruffini and Kristen Soltis Anderson in a memo provided to HuffPollster before the election, which saw a record turnout of more than 730,000 voters: "Our goal was to show the various ways that turnout scores from the voter file could be used to construct different scenarios based on expected turnout.
Lower turnout hurts Trump, but we find the effect is perhaps not as great as people believe...Based on this, we are also able to say that our raw sample resembled a turnout universe of roughly 800,000, based on the distribution of turnout scores from people who responded to the survey.
This is a simplistic analysis -- campaigns and committees use turnout scoring and persuasion scoring based on a more rigorous series of variables to more precisely define these categories (for more on that, read Sasha Issenberg's latest which goes into these methods in much greater detail) -- but it shows that the decision facing many campaigns is not so cut and dry.
Even more significant, that increase was mostly driven by a huge boost among people with the lowest turnout probability scores.
And the IAF organizers are confident that when the election results have been digested, they will be able to show that a volunteer-driven voter participation strategy can significantly increase turnout in scores of precincts where, in the last election, less than half of registered voters bothered to cast a ballot.
Their hope is that by doing so, they will gain a decisive edge in voter turnout in November and score significant gains in the House, the Senate and races for governor.
This achievement is not meaningless as it, together with a large black turnout, allowed the Democrat to score the best presidential result for his party in the state since Jimmy Carter in 1980.
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