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If the numbers are adjusted to account for past turnout patterns, the race is even.
Beyond that, however, the regional turnout patterns in Washington are hard to define.
Fewer Americans vote in midterm elections, and turnout patterns historically have resulted in higher proportions of white voters.
Because the survey was adjusted to reflect turnout patterns in past presidential elections, it expects lower turnouts in Hudson and Essex Counties than elsewhere in the state.
Still, it is likely that at least some of the split in turnout patterns will remain intact once all ballots are in.
We apply these random-intercept models to assess the impact of the political context on the development of generational turnout patterns, assuming that cohorts that grew up in a highly-politicized context have a higher propensity to turnout to vote despite of any age or period effects.
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The Florida turnout pattern was also evident in Iowa and South Carolina.
The third Frey scenario calls for white turnout and voting patterns to replicate those of 2004, and for minority turnout and voting patterns to replicate 2008 — "something closer to what this year's election promises – strong partisan participation by both whites and minorities".
The second Frey scenario provides that both white and black turnout and voting patterns of 2004 are repeated in 2012.
In the first of Frey's scenarios, 2012 will replicate the turnout and voting patterns of 2008 among both whites and minorities.
After two peaceful alternations of political power in a single decade, Taiwan is a democratic success story, demonstrating levels of party competition, turnout rates and patterns of civic engagement similar to those in mature Western democracies.
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