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The Florida turnout pattern was also evident in Iowa and South Carolina.
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If the numbers are adjusted to account for past turnout patterns, the race is even.
Beyond that, however, the regional turnout patterns in Washington are hard to define.
Fewer Americans vote in midterm elections, and turnout patterns historically have resulted in higher proportions of white voters.
Because the survey was adjusted to reflect turnout patterns in past presidential elections, it expects lower turnouts in Hudson and Essex Counties than elsewhere in the state.
Still, it is likely that at least some of the split in turnout patterns will remain intact once all ballots are in.
We apply these random-intercept models to assess the impact of the political context on the development of generational turnout patterns, assuming that cohorts that grew up in a highly-politicized context have a higher propensity to turnout to vote despite of any age or period effects.
Even a tie on the generic ballot, given normal turnout patterns, is good news for the GOP.
But if these turnout patterns hold, Clinton is set for an enormous victory in the state, which would all but clinch her path to the presidency.
But polls in recent weeks have shown Trump up in Iowa by more than one point, so if these turnout patterns hold, VoteCastr's model would suggest an underwhelming performance in the Hawkeye state for Trump.
Generalizing about the mechanics of likely voter models is difficult, since pollsters differ widely in their approaches, but most apply some degree of judgement about either the overall level of turnout expected or calibrate their models to the turnout patterns of past elections.
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