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But Bruce N. Gyory, a Democratic consultant whose turnout forecasts have become required reading for party strategists, said he expected that despite all the attention to the Tea Party this fall, it might not generate big numbers at the ballot box beyond western New York, Mr. Paladino's home turf.
I've found the early vote is a decent calibration tool in addition to comparable past elections, to draw upon when making national and state turnout forecasts.
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Rhodes Cook, a non-partisan political analyst, argues that a rise in turnout usually forecasts a change in party control (as happened in 1992 and 2000).
— NATE SILVER Although the polls made pretty good predictions of the election outcome tonight, forecasting turnout is harder.
National broadcaster NHK and other media forecast turnout at around 52% – seven percentage points down from the last election in 2012 and the lowest since the end of the second world war.
And even as the truth about turnout this year is impossible to forecast, the candidates and their strategists have elaborate theories of their own -- theories that are based, it turns out, on no more than the sort of turnout each one wants.
Electoral officials forecast a final turnout of 62.3%.
Yousef Khaddam, an activist in Sabahi's movement, forecast a big turnout for the anti-Mursi rally in Cairo.
Of course, if there is a larger turnout on Election Day than I am forecasting, my forecasts will be off.
According to research for the independent television commission, voter turnout was low because the pundits' forecasts made voting seem irrelevant.
One of the main complaints was the level of importance given to the opinion polls - many viewers thought voter turnout was low because the pundits' forecasts made voting seem irrelevant.
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