Exact(19)
The dynamic parallels Republicans' turnout advantage in 2010.
"Romney has a turnout advantage in that his supporters are more white," Jones said.
Democrats outnumber Republicans, so the latter depend on a sizable turnout advantage to win elections and sustain minority rule.
First, Republicans generally have a turnout advantage — although, as FiveThirtyEight noted earlier this year, that effect tends to be muted when a Republican is in the White House.
The study found that likely-voter screens may not have adequately anticipated the Republican turnout advantage, and that undecided voters might have broken toward the Republicans.
It should be remembered, however, that Republicans usually have the turnout advantage in November because their voters tend to come from demographic groups (like older Americans and wealthier Americans) who vote more frequently.
Similar(41)
But a more realistic analysis suggests that in this current environment--keeping in mind the above voting metrics and the GOP turnout advantage--the GOP will win approximately 70% of the toss-up seats.
Judgments of the Labour surge in the polls – and prospects on 8 June – hinge very strongly on whether the traditional "grey advantage" in turnout is reduced this time.
In addition, Nevada has a fair number of libertarian-leaning voters — and the lack of excitement over the race could result in a lower turnout and increase the advantage for candidates who have enthusiastic supporters, like Mr. Paul.
As J. Ann Selzer noted after she conducted The Des Moines Register's poll, slightly different but entirely reasonable assumptions about turnout could tip the advantage to Mr. Romney, Mr. Paul or Mr. Santorum, as could the choices made by undecided voters.
President Bush's team, led by Karl Rove, says that Al Gore edged out Bush in the popular vote because Democrats made use of their traditional advantage in turnout, relying on unions and urban machines to round up voters.
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