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Thus, the true degree of uncertainty in a polling result is usually larger than implied by the margin of error alone.
Possibly, summary statistics such as the jobless rate or factory utilisation rate are too crude to capture the true degree of slack.
So far, however, the forecasts made by FiveThirtyEight and other polling aggregators have been fairly accurate, which suggests that the forecasts may be underconfident and may err on the side of overestimating the true degree of uncertainty.
Yet the true degree to which Doris and her coterie have used their sporting passion to transcend whatever voids may have otherwise existed in their evenings seems clear only after word comes, in November, that she has succumbed, at age 58, to several chronic diseases, including lung cancer and the neurofibromatosis that marred her face and body with tumors.
This makes it difficult to estimate the true degree of resilience and impedes efforts to design a resilient engineered system.
A model is proposed to explain this dependence and to allow the bulk or true degree of continuity to be determined.
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Mean square error (MSE): mean of square errors between estimated prediction error degrees and their true degrees .
Mean absolute error (MAE): mean of absolute errors between estimated prediction error degrees and their true degrees.
Mean square error (MSE): mean of square errors between estimated prediction error degrees and their true degrees.
Furthermore, Figure 5k,l,m,n,o shows the differences between estimated prediction error degrees and true degrees.
In this experiment, we adopted the following two evaluation metrics: 1. Mean absolute error (MAE): mean of absolute errors between estimated prediction error degrees and their true degrees 2.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com