Exact(6)
The people running BP did a dreadful job of estimating the true chances of events that seemed unlikely — and may even have been unlikely — but that would bring enormous costs.
And while there is no way to know for sure, of course, whether BP was just extraordinarily unlucky, there is much evidence that people in general are not good at estimating the true chances of rare events, especially when human error may be involved.
Such outcomes may be highly misleading regarding the true chances, because of their probabilistic nature.
If a stock screening spits out a stock that looks too cheap to be true, chances are there's a serious problem with the stock.
If you're browsing through programs to download and one of them has features that make it seem too good to be true, chances are that it is.
If it Sounds too good to be true chances are it is... Giving your password to ANYONE can put your email at big risk.
Similar(52)
What you must worry that you'll never get is a sustained, true chance.
She found that nothing seemed to grab the attention of readers more than a true chance meeting.
I was happy because nobody would want to leave a club as big as Liverpool without a true chance to show their abilities".
But here we were brought down by a true chance in a million: something so rare that most doctors have never heard of it.
For all his brilliance through the years and his famous never-say-die attitude, the true chance that Tony McCoy will draw down the curtain on his extraordinary career by riding the Grand National winner is no better than 10%.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com