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But one trending indicator is up, way up: fake food.
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Black Friday (better known as the day after Thanksgiving and named after its propensity to put stores' balance sheets in the black) used to serve as the leading trend indicator of consumer holiday spending.
"GameMine recognizes the distinct value and importance of South Africa's thriving mobile carrier market as an appropriate demographic region for our company's product, as well as an early trend indicator for the African continent's entire mobile industry," said Daniel Starr, GameMine's chief executive in a statement.
That number is relatively unimportant, though, except as a trend indicator.
We then used the methods of Sauerbrei and Royston [ 9] to identify the best second-degree fractional polynomial transformation for each trend indicator in the joint model and removed any trend indicators that were no longer significant at α = 0.05.
We used the likelihood ratio test to determine the statistical significance of each trend indicator and compared the prognostic value of the trend indicators using the value of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) for each model.
†for the existing time-dependent model with no trend indicators * p-value from the likelihood ratio test comparing the existing time-dependent model with and without the trend indicator **Akaike's Information Criterion ‡For all trend indicators, the value was expressed as a positive or negative number for an increase or decrease in the risk score, respectively.
We used risk scores calculated on a daily basis from an existing time-dependent survival model for hospital mortality to create several trend indicator variables.
When we added each trend indicator separately to the existing model, three trend indicators were independently and strongly significant: the absolute change in the risk score from the previous day; the absolute change in the risk score from the start of the trend; and the number of consecutive days with a trend in the risk score (Table 2).
We expressed all of the trend indicators as continuous variables, using a positive or negative number to indicate an increasing or decreasing risk score, respectively.
Having spoken to a bunch of economists about this, I've found that the official figures are useful as trend indicators but not as hard numbers.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com