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Getting back to the trend rate of growth is no great achievement – and we are not even there yet.
By contrast, NIESR's forecast puts growth roughly at its trend rate.
says Smithers, requires an economy to be growing at an above trend rate.
Most economists estimate that Japan's trend rate of growth is now much lower.
His forecast was that the economy would slow, but to roughly its trend rate of growth.
The trend rate of economic growth is perceived to be 1% or below.
Growth of 1.75% this year is disappointing, given an underlying trend rate of around 2.5%.
The level of demand determines whether economies run above or below their "trend" rate of growth, but that trend rate itself depends on the supply of workers and their productivity.
The decline in industrial production, said official statisticians, would be sufficient by itself to clip the first estimate for GDP growth in the second quarter from an above-trend rate of 0.9% to a trend rate of 0.6%.
Britain's economy is 16% smaller than if it had kept expanding at its trend rate before the crisis.
It is expecting the economy to grow by almost 3.5% this year, well above the trend rate of around 2.5%.
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