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In Pennsylvania, Mr. Blumenthal said, the final trend estimate was a seven percentage point margin; Mr. Obama won by 10.
Just south and west, in the 25th Congressional District, Joe Garcia is running about five points behind Mr. Diaz-Balart's brother, Mario Diaccording, according to the trend estimate at Pollster.com.
It became evident that the trend estimate cannot follow a few data points at the start part of a very rapid drift.
Our trend estimate gives Corbett a roughly 12-point advantage (50.3% to 38.7%).
UPDATE: The original version of this post misstated the leader on our Illinois Senate trend estimate.
Our trend estimate now shows Toomey leading Sestak by eight points (46.7% to 38.7%).
Our trend estimate splits the difference and shows a virtual tie (Kirk 39.8%, Giannoulias 39.0).
Our trend estimate now gives Murray a two-and-a-half point lead (48.6% to 46.1%).
Our standard trend estimate gives Manchin a toss-up level 2.4 point advantage (46.9% to 44.5%).
Our standard trend estimate gives Blunt an eight-point lead (49.5% to 41.3%), down a point from a week ago.
Perry's polling has been rising rapidly with a trend estimate at 16.4, essentially the same as his latest poll.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com