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It's the transient climate response (TCR) that determines the 21st century warming and peak warming.
This is not much use to policymakers.Enter a shorter-term, and hence more useful, measure of sensitivity called the transient climate response, or TCR.
Finally, note that the effect of the last few years of data is smaller on the transient climate response than on climate sensitivity.
We published a paper in the journal Nature Geoscience on Sunday giving a new best estimate of 1.3C for the warming expected due to increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at the time when carbon dioxide levels reach double what they were before the industrial revolution (known as Transient Climate Response, or TCR).
When observations are adjusted to estimate surface air temperatures (red bars in the figure below), or when models are adjusted to estimate land-ocean surface temperatures (blue bars), the estimated transient climate response from climate models and the Otto approach are in close agreement.
This helps explain why we have such a large range of possible transient climate response values (1.0 3.3°C is a pretty big range!), but even so, our results say that we're more than 99.9% confident that most recent global warming is human-caused.
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In this, it is demonstrated that an eventual transient climate-carbon cycle saturation may be exhibited also under moderate emission scenarios if respective integration proceeds for a sufficient time.
We then run the model with transient monthly climate data from 1900 to 2000.
This paper presents an analysis of seasonal precipitation extremes in an ensemble of fourteen transient regional climate model (RCM) simulations for durations varying from 1 to 30 days.
It is inherently transient and, as climate scientists have warned us, it's only going to get harder to access.
We present a quantified assessment of how the risk of water shortages in London is predicted to vary dynamically through to 2100 depending on the choice of adaptation pathways and under different long-term transient population and climate scenarios.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
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