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Their results look like this: Add to this the point that even tradable industries are strongly affected by domestic demand, and you find that globalization has not, in fact, changed the rules all that much.
But that creates a new problem: a strong currency that hurts the country's exporters outside the resource industries.The textbook remedy for this sort of "Dutch disease" is to raise productivity or lower costs in tradable industries that do not benefit from the resource boom.
Migration to the Sunbelt is therefore failing to raise productivity in tradable sectors to a level sufficient to justify new hiring at prevailing wage rates.The picture that emerges is one in which employment growth in high productivity, tradable industries is constrained at the rate of housing supply growth in skilled cities.
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Unionisation might seem like a good option, but that won't help much unless the unionised workforce is already capable of competitively producing in a tradable industry.
For high-tech employment the multiplier is much higher, however; 5 jobs in non-tradable industries are generally created for each job in high tech.
The authors define tradable and non-tradable according to the extent of geographic concentration; non-tradable industries can't be traded, and are therefore only able to serve a local market, which implies much greater geographic distribution.
Recent research by Michael Spence and Sandile Hlatshwayo of New York University's Stern School of Business found that 98% of employment growth between 1990 and 2008 occurred in non-tradable industries.
An interesting new paper by Enrico Moretti and Per Thulin estimates the employment multiplier on job growth in different industries and finds that in America, a new job in the manufacturing sector of a city corresponds to an addition of 1.6 jobs in its non-tradable industries (things like eateries, education and health services, salons, landscaping, and so on).
A new paper* written for the Council on Foreign Relations in New York by Michael Spence and Sandile Hlatshwayo argues that the American economy must find ways to expand employment in "tradables": industries whose products are traded across borders.
Almost all of this was in non-tradable service industries, like education, health, retailing and government services, which added 26.7m jobs.
We further confirm the causal effect of labor market tightening on skill requirements using a natural experiment based on the fracking boom in the U.S. as an exogenous shock to local labor supply in tradable, non-fracking industries.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com