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By Thursday evening, Hurricane Frances had weakened slightly and the track shifted south, and forecasters were guessing it would make landfall Saturday morning around Vero Beach, about 80 miles north of Palm Beach.
Instead, the track shifted well to the west, and prediction models suggested a path through central Pennsylvania and western New York State before entering southern Ontario by Wednesday, said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
The track shifted more to the west-northwest.
Convection gradually increased across the region as the track shifted westward.
Its track shifted from the northwest to the southwest and later back to the northwest.
Around that time, the circulation became exposed from the deepest convection, and the track shifted more to the west.
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