Sentence examples for track forecasting from inspiring English sources
Judith Curry, a climate scientist at the Georgie Institute of Technology, sent this thought, building on Emanuel's: I agree with Kerry that inherent (un predictability outweighs advances in track forecasting in trying to compare Isaac to Katrina, but the advances in track forecasting are real.
I do not have the data at my fingertips to prove it, but my guess is that such case-to-case (and even day-to-day) variations in inherent predictability outweigh any systematic improvements in track forecasting since 2005.
Here's my query to hurricane scientists: Has track forecasting improved (note the difference in cone area/width in the two hurricane forecast archives below) or are these fundamentally different tropical systems facing different levels of complex conditions?
Tropical cyclone track forecasting remains a vexing problem.
In this study, a breeding ensemble technique that is designed specifically for tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting is presented.
There are several elements to tropical cyclone forecasting: track forecasting, intensity forecasting, rainfall forecasting, storm surge, and tornado forecasting.
The cloud-cover pictures transmitted by the TIROS craft enabled meteorologists to track, forecast, and analyze storms.
In comparing the track forecasts for Isaac with that for Katrina, he noted how much of what is called the "cone of uncertainty" – the wide area over which the track could range — had shrunk in comparing the forecasts seven years apart.
For example, a storm embedded in a confluent large-scale flow (i.e. one whose streamlines tend to converge) will generally have less directional track forecast uncertainty, though the timing of the progress of the storm along its track may suffer.
1 01 p.m. | Various updates below | With the tropical storm that will soon be Hurricane Isaac heading in the general direction of New Orleans seven years (possibly to the day) after Hurricane Katrina topped the flood protections there, I looked back at the archived track forecasts for the 2005 storm and posted the link on Twitter and Facebook.
The ensemble forecast provides track forecasts that are comparable to the operational center track forecasts and provides a more accurate rainfall forecast than a single deterministic prediction.
