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Conditions in much of southern Iraq will far exceed that level at least part of the time, forecasters say.
But, at the same time, forecasters have more successfully resisted pulling the trigger when warnings are unnecessary.
At the time, forecasters anticipated the depression would continue east-northeastward and become an extratropical cyclone.
Around this time, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center predicted the storm would not strengthen to hurricane intensity before making landfall.
At the time, forecasters at the JTWC anticipated that Dot would interact with an approaching weather front and track north of Hainan Island.
Around this time, forecasters reported that the depression would re-intensify once in the Gulf of Mexico before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone.
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Even in normal times, forecasters have a strong incentive to make extreme predictions, which is why those "Dow 1,000!" reports persist.
In normal times, forecasters would generally ignore auto-leasing terms and instead pay a lot more attention to, say, Treasury bond interest rates, recent retail sales or the employment rate.
Even with earlier start times, forecasters are predicting record low television numbers for the San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers — local viewers can't be pulled away from coverage of the Bears' bye week.
Soon, a Web site called the End Times Forecaster was predicting the exact date of an imminent supervolcano eruption.
This time, economic forecasters are more optimistic.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com