This result varies between the scenarios, despite the small differences in simulated SSTs over the current decade (e.g., Fig. 3), because the projected and observed warming since the beginning of this study's 1985–2000 climatological baseline period may have already elevated the frequency of severe thermal stress close to or past the five year threshold in many locations.
Forty years threshold was chosen as fibrosis progression is very slow in younger patients [ 3].
Examining the results by region, only the Central Pacific passes the five year bleaching threshold during this century in the B1 scenario (Table 2).
The fraction of reefs expected to have surpassed the five year frequency threshold by 2005 increases from 7% in the Commit scenario to 19% in the B1 scenarios and 29% in the A1b scenario.
In the B1 scenario, the five year frequency threshold is surpassed by 80% of the world's reefs by 2030, fifty years earlier than in the Commit scenario and ten years later than in the higher emissions A1b scenario (Fig. 4).
For example, since the variability-based metric as constructed does not assign a minimum value to the DHM threshold, the long tail of extremely low σM values increases the fraction of reefs expected to have surpassed the five year frequency threshold by 2005 to 34% 27%%) from 29% 19%%) in the A1b (B1) scenario.
The projected year that the five year frequency threshold is surpassed is less than 10 years early in 91% (70%) of these cases in the A1b (B1) scenario, and more than 20 years earlier in 5% of these cases in the B1 scenario.
Typically, the group of patients is dichotomized based on a five year survival threshold, resulting in a poor and a good outcome group.
There was no false alert on the three year period because the threshold was greater than the maximum value of the indicator outside the heat-wave period.
In the analysis of optimal systolic intensification threshold using a three year treatment strategy assessment period that included 329 491 patients, intensification thresholds above 150 mm Hg remained associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events or death.
When we did alternate analyses using a three year treatment assessment period, intensification thresholds above 150 mm Hg remained associated with increased risk.
