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The phrase "they probably did" is correct and usable in written English.
It can be used when making an assumption or speculation about someone's actions or decisions in the past. Example: "Given their history of involvement in similar projects, they probably did contribute to the success of the initiative."
Exact(60)
They probably did.
If looks could kill, they probably did.
"I think they probably did.
Worse, they probably did and didn't care".
"I suppose they probably did," Coughlin conceded.
They probably did as well as they could.
Going unnoticed means they probably did a good job.
In the beginning, they probably did exist in equal amounts.
"Yeah, but they probably did, right?" Mr. Smith persisted.
"They underestimated us, didn't they?" They probably did.
They probably did, playing to avoid relegation and all that.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com