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The key problem – one that seems to be pervasive in Whitehall to judge by these forecasts – is that people in government have no idea what is going on in the real world of business.
The problem with these forecasts is that they defy common sense.
Another important assumption used in these forecasts is the EC Transport White Paper target for modal shift, with the recognition of current recession in the data analysis.
"One of the key messages coming from these forecasts is that the government seems all right with a little bit weaker growth than its target, as long as things like the labour market are holding up".
The overall assumption behind these forecasts is that countries with lower per capita income will continue to catch up but around 2030 all countries' exogenous productivity growth will be converging slowly towards the steady state value of 1.7 % per annum.
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Second, these forecasts are only what are called probability forecasts.
These forecasts are the foundation on which the commercial products are built.
If these forecasts are right, this is not good news for employment growth.
It is more likely, however, that these forecasts are imprecise and optimistic….
The details of these forecasts are immensely complicated, but the underlying science is pretty simple.
However, the situation remains fluid and these forecasts are always liable to change".
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com