Here, we use the model to explore the timing and spread of influenza on the global scale as a function of transmissibility (i.e., the basic reproductive number, <img src="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/asset?id=info?doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0019515.e002.PNG" class= inline-graphic"/> ), the origin of pandemic spread, and the time of year of emergence.
By analyzing the 2009 2010 Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) incidence in Italy, as reported to the national surveillance system, the hypothesis appears plausible that spontaneous behavioral changes have played a role in the pandemic, contributing to change the timing of spread and the transmissibility potential.
This paper aims to compare the timing, geographical spread and the community effect of 2009 influenza pandemic as compared to previous seasonal influenza outbreaks in WHO European Region.
To estimate the proportion of females becoming pregnant in any given year we chose that proportion which, in conjunction with appropriate values for the timing and spread of the breeding season, mimics most closely the observed variation.
Recent work relying on large-scale transmission models has explored the ability of these approaches to predict the timing of spread of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic around the world [ 68].
The sentinel reports were first evaluated by comparing them to the laboratory reports and were then used to assess the timing and spread of influenza activity across Europe during eight seasons.
To our knowledge, this is the first study comparing the timing, geographic spread and outpatient clinical consultation rates for ILI or ARI of the 2009-2010 pandeminfluenzanza season against historical data for a large number of countries.
This study aimed to compare the timing, geographic spread and community impact during the winter wave of influenza pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 to historical influenza seasons in countries of the WHO European region.
Surveillance of influenza is important for determining the timing and spread of influenza, for tracking changes in circulating influenza viruses to inform seasonal influenza vaccine composition, and as an alert mechanism for potential pandemic viruses [ 1].
With the World Cup in South Africa, the timing for spreading the word could not be better.
