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But, according to the same forecasts, a rebound is possible by the second half of 2002.
The same forecasts show GDP per person in China at 59% of that in America; in India it will be only 27%.
The eurozone has just completed another year of miserable growth (0.8% is the ECB's own forecast) and little improvement is on the cards this year (1%, say the same forecasts).
How can one compare forecasting ability?The only reliable method is to conduct a forecasting tournamentThe only reliable method is to conduct a forecasting tournament in which independent judges ask all participants to make the same forecasts in the same timeframes.
By contrast, one popular model implies that Mr. Obama would be a better than 90 percent favorite if economic growth goes according to the forecast — while another would peg him as more than a 90 percent underdog if the same forecasts hold true.
On the other hand, this can be an advantage for Weathernews, because weather agencies need to differentiate instead of using the same forecasts as their competitors.
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The same forecast had three other cable providers stemming their losses year-over-year.
But the same forecast projected that core price inflation -- which excludes volatile food and energy prices -- would "rise noticeably" this year.
Traditionally, economists depend on the idea of rational expectations, where homogeneous agents agree on the same forecasting model and know that others know that others know that, etc.
The Item Club's warning is important because it is the only independent economic group to use the same forecasting model as the Treasury.
Over on LW, the same forecast had just collided with the final wicket of England's Ashes victory over Australia in Sydney.
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