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To identify the final best forecasting model, the best performing model of each utilized method is selected and further compared based on the prior specified performance measures.
The prior specified for the root age had a considerable effect on the posterior of the age of the passerine radiation.
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These estimates differ from the priors specified for the seroconversion probability, because the posteriors for these parameters are also informed by indirect evidence from the rest of the model.
Thus, the methods generally involve comparisons without any prior specified correspondence between residues.
Because similar TMRCA estimates were obtained regardless of prior specified we only report the former.
This procedure continued until a prior specified minimum reliability of the final estimated was established.
We performed analyses on the mtDNA dataset for 40 million generations using the BEAST priors specified above.
The simulations results presented in Tables 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 indicate that specifying the correct copula model has little impact on the operating characteristics of Phase I-II clinical trials but are dependent on a number of factors, including the sample size and priors specified for the logistic regression models used for efficacy and toxicity.
We followed the method of Ioannidis [ 37] where the prior is specified as a spike null and smear alternative.
The posterior means and 95% credible intervals are comfortably within the prior ranges specified in Section 2.1.
Univariate and the first stage multivariate models produced broadly similar point estimates of intervention effects but the uncertainty around the multivariate estimates varied depending on the prior distribution specified for the between-study covariance structure.
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