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"We are beginning to approximate the kind of warming you should see in the winter season" based on the model projections, especially over the land masses of the Northern Hemisphere, Mr. Changery said.
The predicted rise in temperature was based on a range of possible scenarios that accounted for future greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation (severity reduction) measures and on uncertainties in the model projections.
In the draft version of the IPCC figure, it was simply a visual illusion that the surface temperature data appeared to be warming less slowly than the model projections, even though the measured temperature trend fell within the range of model simulations.
Other hydrologic modeling approaches have used streamgage data to validate the model projections using current or historical data.
Since most GCMs do not simulate observed 20th century climate accurately at regional scales (Giorgi and Francisco 2000; Phillips and Gleckler 2006), we cannot compare the model projections directly with current observed data.
It needs to be noted that the model projections analysed in the paper are based on simplifying assumptions and tentative scenarios, and hence should be viewed with caution and not be understood as unconditional forecasts.
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The non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test [ 28] was used to evaluate whether model EDM significantly differed within separate shape classes, as well as between groups defined by the number of edges in the model projection.
The value of this work was illustrated this spring, many say, when 50 years of ocean temperature measurements showed warming that matched the models' projections.
In order to test the robustness of the A1.a model projections given the relatively small sample size and issues of transferability, two experiments using the southern outbreak data were performed.
We found that the number of sites with changes was sensitive to the start value used: the 1951 2000 historical average differed from the four model projections for the 2001 2025 time period in a few cases.
In the US Southwest, for instance, state-of-the-art climate model projections suggest the risk of a decade-scale megadrought in the coming century is less than 50%; our analysis suggests that the risk is at least 80%, and may be higher than 90% in certain areas.
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