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Figure 2 shows the average value of the implementation variables by birth year.
This implies that the implementation variables may be downward biased estimations of the probability of studying under LOGSE.
First, the implementation variables are based on the specific grade (at each stage ESO1, ESO2, or Baccalaureate) an individual "should" have studied according to birth year.
Second, the estimated LOGSE effect should be interpreted as the impact of the reform for those individuals in the TRANSITION period during which the implementation variables change, i.e. similar to the interpretation of estimations by Regression Discontinuity Design around the cutoff point (Lee and Lemieuxa 2010).
Third, the window of time was also modified to assess whether results remained consistent when studying only the last decade .29Results seem to hold, with the exception of the implementation variables timing and the interactions of the allocation of resources to programme administration with the policy variables that become highly significant for the unemployment rate.
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Therefore, we compute the next implementation variables: (a) ESO1 The "probability" that a student studied ESO first stage; (b) ESO2 The "probability" that a student studied ESO second stage, and; (c) BACH_LOGSE The "probability" that a student studied the LOGSE Baccalaureate.
Each of these models have been estimated using the three implementation variables (ESO1, ESO2 and BACH_LOGSE), and for both numeracy and literacy.
Likewise, the impact of implementation variables shows the mirror image of unemployment rate estimations; yet, in this case, the allocation of resources to programme administration has a positive and significant effect on the employment rate of both population groups (albeit only at the 10% level for the overall group).
Training, in contrast, seems to be effective mostly for the overall population; however, it has also positive effects for the low skilled through the interaction with implementation variables.
In particular, I estimated three reduced models for each dependent variable: the first model including only the four policy variables, the second model testing only implementation variables, and the third model with all policy and implementation variables.
Relative to OLS models estimated with fixed-effects and FGLS models fitted for panel data, the effects of ALMPs on labour market variables appear generally more effective in IV models, which account for the endogeneity of policy and implementation variables, with the exception of the unemployment rates, where OLS and FGLS coefficients are generally higher.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com